TradeStation Securities, a wholly owned subsidiary of Monex Group, has announced the results of the ‘Monex Global Retail Investor Survey, Vol. 9,’ revealing that US investors are growing ever more bullish about the prospects for domestic stocks and the US dollar in the third quarter of 2013.
This surprising result flies in the face of broad pessimism about the outlook for global equities, as well as clear concern about how growing budget deficits and other structural problems could affect the U.S. economy going forward.
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In the online survey conducted in June 2013, U.S. investors were far more upbeat about the outlook for domestic stocks and the U.S. dollar than just six months ago. In the quarterly survey conducted in December 2012, only 43% of TradeStation customers expected U.S. stocks to outperform stocks in Europe/U.K., Asia (excluding Japan) and Japan; however, that number rose 14 points to 57% in March 2013 and was up another six points in June 2013. Only 19% of U.S. investors expect Asian stocks (excluding Japan) to perform best over the third quarter of 2013, down 4 points from the March 2013 survey result. TradeStation customers were also increasingly bullish about the U.S. dollar, with more than half (53%) expecting the dollar to outperform the other major currencies in the next three months, up from 49% in March 2013 and from just 35% in last December’s results.
This growing optimism comes despite persistent concern about the outlook for global markets. U.S. investors remained downbeat about global equities, with 40% predicting they would turn down in the third quarter of 2013, versus just 29% predicting that global stocks would rise and 31% predicting that they would remain flat. Growing optimism about U.S. shares and the dollar also trumped worries about long-term threats to the U.S. economy. When asked what single issue posed the greatest long-term threat to the U.S. economy, nearly two-thirds of respondents cited either federal budget deficits/long-term debt (37%) or weak demand/high unemployment (28%).
"The survey results suggest that concerns about global economic challenges haven’t dampened U.S. investors’ expectations for domestic stocks and the U.S. dollar," said Salomon Sredni, CEO of TradeStation Group, Inc. and COO of Monex Group, Inc. "Our mission is to provide TradeStation clients with the tools and resources they’ll need to tackle what continues to be a very challenging trading environment."
Respondents’ expectations for their own trading volume over the next 12 months were little changed from last quarter’s positive results, with half of respondents (50%) expecting their trading volume to increase (down 6 points from March) and just 7% expecting it to decrease (down 2 points from March).
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By GlobalDataMonex has been conducting its monthly retail investor survey with its Japanese clients since October 2009. The "Monex Global Retail Investor Survey," covering retail clients in Japan, Hong Kong and the U.S., was launched in June 2011 and is conducted on a quarterly basis. Please refer to the full report for complete results.
TradeStation customers remain relatively positive on the outlook for China, but concerns about the slowing Chinese economy have grown significantly in the last six months. Thirty-four percent of respondents cited China as the economic area outside their own that would experience the strongest GDP growth in 2013, still tops among all regions; however, that figure is down 25 points from December 2012 and 13 points from the March 2013 survey results. U.S. investors were slightly more bullish about prospects for South America, with 29% citing Latin America as the region that would experience the strongest GDP over the next 12 months, up from 26% in last quarter’s survey.
The Monex Global Retail Investor Survey measures customer sentiment based upon answers to specific questions received from a random sampling of customers of Monex, Inc., TradeStation Securities, Inc., IBFX, Inc., and Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Ltd. Details of the methodology used to conduct the survey are available upon request. Accuracy and completeness of the data derived from the survey is not guaranteed.
The information contained herein should not be construed as investment research or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives, futures or off-exchange foreign currency products or services. Investor sentiment derived from the survey responses is no guarantee of future performance or success.
Active trading regardless of asset class (equities, futures, foreign exchange) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Relevant risk disclosures are available at www.tradestation.com.
