More than half of the CFA Institute’s members expect the results of the presidential election to have a positive impact on business at investment management firms, with only 13% expecting a negative impact.
To identify its US member’s views on the impact of the US presidential election on the investment profession, CFA Institute conducted a survey in which 3,800 investment professionals participated. The survey solicited member views on the potential effect on client portfolios, the value of the U.S. dollar, and investment management firms in the next 12 months.
The survey found that 85% of respondents are expecting a moderate or sharp increase in bond yields, and 62% expecting a moderate or sharp increase in US equities.
Overall, 49% of the respondents were of the view that the impact of the elections on client portfolios will be positive or very positive on a one-year basis, with 21% anticipating minimal to no impact.
John Bowman, managing director for Americas at the CFA Institute, said: “In light of significant uncertainty in the run up to the election, this positive forecast from our members is a good barometer of what investment professionals expect within the industry in the next year. As we navigate through coming changes, the views of our members offer a snapshot of their sentiment regarding the impact of the election on their clients’ portfolios, U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar.”
The survey also revealed that 38% expect the value of the US Dollar to appreciate by less than 10%, with 27% expecting there to be little change and 25% expecting it to decrease by 10% or less.
According to the respondents, industry segments that will see a positive impact as a result of the election are financials (80%), energy (72%) and industrials (65%).
While, industry segments that could see a negative impact are utilities (38%), real estate (32%) and information technology (32%).
The report added that 53% of the respondents indicated that they do not expect to restructure their portfolios following the election results.