Global gross domestic product (GDP) could accelerate from 3% in 2013 to 3.5% in 2014 while inflation remains uncomfortably low in developed market countries, according to the December Global Macro Views: 2014 Outlook from Standish, the Boston-based fixed income specialist for BNY Mellon.
The deflationary risks could be particularly acute in the euro area, the report said.
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In the US, Standish expects economic growth to accelerate from 2.1% in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014 as the impact of the drag from fiscal policies begins to fade. This could lead the Federal Reserve to wind down its quantitative easing program by the end of 2014, Standish said.
Thomas D. Higgins, chief economist and global strategist for Standish, said: "Although housing investment is likely to moderate due to the rise in interest rates, business investment could accelerate moderately as companies seek to replace aging capital stocks. We see upside potential to our forecast for both growth and inflation in the U.S. given stronger household balance sheets and an improving labor market."
While Standish is looking for moderate GDP growth of 1.2% in the euro area in 2014, it also expects further monetary easing from the European Central Bank to deflect the threat of deflation.
The risk of disinflation is partly driven by the internal devaluations of the peripheral economies as they seek to regain competitiveness by lowering their domestic price levels, Standish said. The United Kingdom could outperform the euro zone and achieve GDP growth of 2.4% in 2014, the report said.
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By GlobalDataThe currencies of emerging market economies have been stressed as the Fed increased the probability of tapering its easing program. However, Standish said the accelerating global economy could raise the growth rate of emerging markets from 4.6% in 2013 to 4.9% in 2014.
In Asia, Standish expects Chinese GDP to decelerate to 7%, a result of government policies to lessen state intervention in the economy.
While some of the reform measures are expected to boost growth, others such as stricter government budget restraints and increased bank governance could have a negative impact on growth. For Japan, Standish expects GDP growth to average just below two percent, and believes the government will expand its quantitative easing program to further stimulate the economy.
GDP growth in Latin America could increase to 3.1% in 2014, Standish said. While the region remains vulnerable to declines in commodity prices due to the slowing Chinese economy, Standish expects that to be offset by increasing demand in developed nations.
