Only a small number of HNWIs and UHNWIs are confident about EU’s move towards a recovery, with only 5% of investors feeling very confident that policymakers will be able to ‘restart the region’s credit engine’, a JP Morgan Private Bank’s survey has revealed.
Among HNWIs and UHNWIs of 17 European cities and Dubai, two-fifth of investors (41%) were mostly uncertain about Europe’s future believing that France is slowing down the recovery process. In contrast, in 2013, JP Morgan’s survey revealed 70% of investors had improved their expectations towards Europe.
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In the 2014 study, which surveyed more than 700 UHNW and HNW investors, over a third (36%) of the interviewees said they felt more positive about the region’s prospects. The remaining 17% said they were completely unconvinced that Europe’s economy would heal due to geopolitical risks. Most investors (45%) were also convinced that for the Eurozone’s economy to recover and return to growth, the euro must fall to $1.20.
Looking ahead at 2015, when the survey respondents were asked about asset class performance predictions, 58% of investors agreed that equities will be the best-performing asset class compared to 50% of the interviewees one year ago. In particular, over two fifths (42%) of respondents agreed that the US equity market will outperform compared to only 30% who believe that it will be the European equity market.
Cesar Perez, chief investment strategist for JP Morgan Private Bank in EMEA, said: "As we head into the year end, the pace of growth within the developed world has become more dispersed. The Eurozone’s recovery has been postponed by three to six months. Meanwhile, the US data has been broadly consistent with our 3% growth forecast for 2015 as the economic recovery continues."
Perez also explained JP Morgan’s position towards equities saying the US represents one of the bank’s main overweights. He added: "History suggests that US equity multiples have room to expand a little further if inflation remains around 1% and 2%. Therefore, we believe we are still in a sweet spot for US equity markets."
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By GlobalDataAccording to the bank, the remaining participants of the survey were split in their choices between hedge funds and alternative investments (24%), US Treasuries (6%) and core fixed income (5%).
When asked the best way to gain exposure to emerging markets, over two fifths (42%) of respondents believed investing through emerging market (EM) equities will yield the highest returns, while 38% believed European multinationals are the best way to gain exposure.
The outlook for China and Asia showed different insights, however, with less than a fifth (18%) of investors having higher hopes for these regions to outperform. Interestingly, only 10% think Japan will come out on top in comparison to a more positive view one year ago.
