According to monthly data from Assogestioni, in March 2026, net inflows into open-end mutual funds saw a sharp decline (-€4.4bn), following the negative—albeit more modest—figure recorded in February.

Outflows were more intense than anticipated by nowcasting models (-€2.7bn). However, the models correctly identified the direction of all major asset classes and the shift in portfolio rebalancing toward more liquid instruments with lower exposure to market volatility (Fig. 1). In general, outflows were largely concentrated in Italian-registered funds (-€5.3bn).

In contrast, foreign funds mitigated the negative balance (+€0.9bn), a trend that could reflect both greater exposure of domestic products to tactical rebalancing by Italian clients during a period of strong risk-off sentiment and a more diversified foreign offering geared toward liquid, defensive, and global solutions.

Investor behaviour must, in fact, be viewed within a context of strong risk aversion. The geopolitical shock in the Middle East and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a broad correction in equity markets, a rise in energy prices, and an increase in inflation expectations and government bond yields, prompting the Fed and the ECB to maintain a more cautious stance than had been anticipated prior to the crisis.

In this context, inflows into open-end mutual funds clearly reflect a preference for liquidity and the containment of portfolio risk. In fact, money market funds are the only asset class with significant positive inflows (+€2.7bn), confirming their role as a parking place for liquidity in a phase characterised by high uncertainty, greater volatility, and risk-free yields that remain attractive but are insufficient to offset outflows from long-term asset classes.

Bond funds posted a modest outflow (-€0.7bn), breaking the positive trend of the past two years. However, the March figure should not be interpreted as a structural disaffection toward fixed income, as the sector remains positive year-to-date and continues to be attractive given more favourable interest rate levels compared to the past, but rather as a tactical pause following the sharp rise in 10-year rates and inflation expectations, which temporarily penalised strategies with longer durations.

Equity funds also closed in negative territory (-€1.6bn), consistent with the deterioration in sentiment and the repricing of risk, but with limited outflows, suggesting a tendency among investors not to broadly reduce their equity exposure during periods of sharp market corrections.

The hardest-hit segment was multi-asset products, particularly balanced funds (-4 billion), as the equity correction and pressure on bonds reduced these instruments’ ability to provide portfolio stabilisation precisely when investors needed it most. Flexible funds also continued to show weakness (-€0.8bn), continuing a negative trend already observed over the past year and confirming the difficulties faced by strategies with greater management discretion in a context dominated by exogenous shocks, high volatility, and uncertainty regarding monetary policy trajectories.