In the online survey conducted in March 2013, U.S. investors remained pessimistic about global equities, with 39% predicting they would turn down in the second quarter of 2013, versus just 33% predicting that global stocks would rise, and 28% predicting that they would remain flat. The survey results also made clear that domestic economic concerns remain primarily responsible for investor pessimism, with nearly half of all respondents (47%) citing what they perceive as the still-struggling U.S. economy as the most important factor influencing their investment decisions.
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Despite this concern, U.S. investors were relatively upbeat about the outlook for U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar. Whereas in the previous quarterly survey conducted in December just 43% of TradeStation customers expected U.S. stocks to outperform stocks in Europe/U.K., Asia (excluding Japan) and Japan, that number rose 14 points to 57% in March, easily outpacing the 23% of U.S. investors who expect Asian stocks (excluding Japan) to perform best over the second quarter of 2013. TradeStation customers were also more bullish about the U.S. dollar, with nearly half (49%) expecting the dollar to outperform the other major currencies in the next three months, up from 35% in December’s results.
Moreover, this more upbeat view was reflected in respondents’ expectations for their own trading volume over the next 12 months. More than half of those surveyed (56%) expect their trading volume to increase over the next year, while just 9% expect it to decrease.
Monex has been conducting its monthly retail investor survey with its Japanese clients since October 2009. The "Monex Global Retail Investor Survey," covering retail clients in Japan, Hong Kong and the U.S., was launched in June 2011 and is conducted on a quarterly basis. Please refer to the full report for complete results.
Although TradeStation customers remain relatively positive on the outlook for China, concerns about the slowing Chinese economy were clearly apparent in this quarter’s survey results. Thirty-five percent of respondents cited China as the economic area outside their own that would experience the strongest GDP growth in 2013, down 12 points from the December survey results. U.S. investors were also somewhat less bullish about prospects for South America – only 26% cited South America as the region that would experience the strongest GDP over the next 12 months, versus 35% in the December survey.
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By GlobalDataThe survey results also indicate that U.S. investors fully expect the Federal Reserve to continue its policy of monetary easing well beyond the current year. When asked when they expect the Fed to begin to "taper" or end its asset purchases, only one in four respondents (25%) cited the first or second half of 2013; by contrast, nearly half of all investors (49%) cited the first or second half of 2014, while roughly a quarter (26%) expect current Fed policy to remain unchanged into 2015 or later.
"The survey results suggest that despite a tough global trading environment we see reason for continued optimism in U.S. equities, and hope for a stronger U.S. dollar," said Salomon Sredni, CEO of TradeStation Group, Inc. and COO of Monex Group, Inc. "With investors poised to increase their trading volume, TradeStation is committed to providing the powerful trading tools they’ll need to identify and act on these developing opportunities."
The Monex Global Retail Investor Survey measures customer sentiment based upon answers to specific questions received from a random sampling of customers of Monex, Inc., TradeStation Securities, Inc., IBFX, Inc., and Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Ltd. Details of the methodology used to conduct the survey are available upon request. The survey is not scientific, and the accuracy and completeness of the data derived from the survey is not guaranteed.
The information contained herein should not be construed as investment research or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives, futures or off-exchange foreign currency products or services. Investor sentiment derived from the survey responses is presented solely for informational purposes and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
