According to the firm’s outlook for 2012, the reasons for a positive outlook on the US economy for 2012 is based on several developments, including steady albeit modest job creation which is helping to boost consumer confidence, rising capacity utilization indicative of a likely pick up in investment activity, and a recovery in bank lending to non-financial companies.
"We rate the chances of the US relapsing into recession at no more than one in five, if that, and, if anything, suspect that the economy will grow faster in 2012 than in 2011," the report says.
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The report says that two factors supporting the growth of the US economy are the rapid increase in productivity, which has been greater than in Europe, and the weaker dollar.
"Both developments have helped the US economy acquire an internationally competitive edge at a time when global trade is set for a further slowdown in 2012. This should help the economy retain market share, if not gain it, and help also to shift consumption towards domestic output instead of foreign goods and services," the report adds.
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