TradeStation, a Monex Group company, has announced results of the Monex Global Retail Investor Survey, which finds US investors’ confidence on the upswing, a shift noteworthy in that it accompanies growing anticipation of changes in Federal Reserve Bank monetary policy beginning in 2015.
In the online survey conducted in September 2014, U.S. investors’ perception of the global equities markets took a decidedly positive turn after plummeting in the previous quarter’s survey.
Go deeper with GlobalData
Access deeper industry intelligence
Experience unmatched clarity with a single platform that combines unique data, AI, and human expertise.
Nearly half (45%) of survey respondents expect global stocks to rise in the fourth quarter of 2014, a healthy jump from 29% in June, and more in line with the 46% and 54% predicting such a rise in the March 2014 and December 2013 quarterly surveys, respectively. However, the stubborn percentage of survey respondents who see global equities markets declining in the next three months fell only slightly, to 33% from 35% in the June 2014 survey.
Growing U.S. investor confidence comes at a time when investors also foresee imminent changes in Federal Reserve Bank monetary policy. Over half of the survey respondents (54%) now expect the Fed to start pulling back from its policy of "quantitative easing" by the end of this year, as planned – up from 46% in June. Moreover, when asked when they expect the Fed to taper its asset purchases and begin raising interest rates again, nearly four in five investors (78%) predicted either the first or the second half of 2015.
Investors’ more upbeat outlook on global equities markets was reflected in their expectations for their own trading volume over the next 12 months. A solid majority (61%) expect their trading volume to increase over the next year. Interestingly enough, that figure is only barely changed from the June and March 2014 surveys, when 60% and 57% of investors, respectively, said they anticipate increasing their trading activity in the coming year. Only one in 20 investors (5%) said they expect to trade less over the coming year.
As in previous surveys, investors have their eyes set squarely on the U.S. equities markets, with 72% expecting U.S. stocks to outperform stocks in Europe/U.K., Asia (excluding Japan) and Japan in the final quarter of 2014.
US Tariffs are shifting - will you react or anticipate?
Don’t let policy changes catch you off guard. Stay proactive with real-time data and expert analysis.
By GlobalDataLikewise, over half (52%) of those surveyed expect the U.S. dollar to strengthen the most of any currency over the next three months. While nearly two in three investors (65%) consider stocks to be an attractive investment for the remainder of the year, options and futures received a resounding vote of confidence, with 78% of those surveyed saying these markets present attractive opportunities through the remainder of 2014.
"This quarter’s U.S. survey results suggest that investor expectations for financial markets may well have turned a corner," said Salomon Sredni, CEO of TradeStation Group, Inc. and COO of Monex Group, Inc. "Investors are more upbeat about global equities, about U.S. equities and the dollar – and that’s reflected in their positive outlook for their own trading activity going forward. Our job at TradeStation is to ensure that our clients have superior trading and analysis tools that can help them make the most of these opportunities."
Monex has been conducting its monthly retail investor survey with its Japanese clients since October 2009. The "Monex Global Retail Investor Survey," covering retail clients in Japan, Hong Kong and the U.S., was launched in June 2011 and is conducted on a quarterly basis. Please refer to the full report for complete results.
The Monex Global Retail Investor Survey measures customer sentiment based upon answers to specific questions received from a random sampling of customers of Monex, Inc., TradeStation Securities, Inc., IBFX, Inc., and Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Ltd. Details of the methodology used to conduct the survey are available upon request. Accuracy and completeness of the data derived from the survey is not guaranteed.
The information contained herein should not be construed as investment research or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives, futures or off-exchange foreign currency products or services. Investor sentiment derived from the survey responses is no guarantee of future performance or success.
