Ray Soudah, founder of MilleniumAssociates AG, the international Corporate Finance and M&A specialist, writes about how resegmentation of markets is expected to dominate private banking and wealth management M&A – "$500 billion to one trillion to be resegmented "
Go deeper with GlobalData
Access deeper industry intelligence
Experience unmatched clarity with a single platform that combines unique data, AI, and human expertise.
Whether admitting it or not, the majority of private banks and wealth managers in almost every important world wealth centre are busily conducting fresh market and client focus reviews in order to determine which market segments/nationalities and domiciles of clients should be focused and which should be defocussed.
This requirement has been anticipated for some time and in this round of reviews the most rigorous efforts are being made to determine, at a minimum, which markets to exit, and subsequently how to achieve such exits in an orderly least disruptive manner.
Managing reputational risk
Induced to do so by a combination of stricter cross-border regulations, limited or total lack of the requisite onshore market know how, limited product coverage and last but not least the desire to eliminate potential sources of reputational risk in case of overly complex client/market portfolios, service providers are scrambling to reduce the number of markets covered.
US Tariffs are shifting - will you react or anticipate?
Don’t let policy changes catch you off guard. Stay proactive with real-time data and expert analysis.
By GlobalDataIn some cases market coverage is being reduced by 60 to 80 percent, depending on the size of the institution. In most instances this is an ongoing process and the early market exits are likely to be followed by the further narrowing of covered markets.
Banks and wealth managers in effect must offer "onshore" investment advice or its equivalent especially for the smaller to medium sized clients who are less likely to have structured their tax affairs, which many of the ultra high net worth clients tend to do.
It will be impossible to maintain quality advice to clients in the new environment when the relationship managers are not, and cannot be, deemed experts in domestic market tax and product issues. Rather than risking regulatory.
and miss-selling exposure, banks prefer to exit the markets they cannot or wish not to service fully in a compliant way.
Even regulators are encouraging banks to limit the market coverage of the relationship managers to as few as two or three markets per officer given the knowledge required is significant.
Billions of dollars on the move
In numerical terms, based on feedback from a wide selection of institutions between 5% to 10% of their assets under management are being resegmented in this round. If we assume the international offshore private wealth market is around ten trillion US dollars, that means that between five hundred billion and one trillion USD of AuM will be shifted from some institutions to others, more than half thereof booked in European centres.
This represents in aggregate around one hundred markets being exited even though each institutions’ number of market exits may be limited to between ten and fifty markets given the differences in preferred market strategies of each firm.
Luckily not each firm has the same market exit strategy and this phenomenon allows the underlying clients to be placed safely in institutions with a focus on their market origins.
Intense resegmentation needs a different approach
The impact of the intense resegmentation reviews taking place and that will take place during the period ahead will have several consequences:
Firstly traditional M&A processes with "take what we have for sale or not at all" beliefs of sellers are unrealistic. Each private bank willing to consolidate is becoming increasingly more specific as to what they would acquire in terms of market coverage or minimum client size, often not wanting all of the markets a seller has to offer, or limiting their focus to only the higher end clients in certain markets.
This will lead to failed or reduced scope of sales processes and reduced number of "holistic" buyers as most prefer market by market acquisition strategies and will be even more determined in the period ahead to only bid for what they would actually like as a whole. M&A valuations in the shorter term are therefore likely to be pressured and may even fall slightly before recovering once the resegmentation process is concluded (estimated to potentially take until 2018).
Secondly the number of relationship manager resignations / dismissals before and after any residual M&A processes will increase as they independently seek an institution willing to support the market coverage of their specific know-how and historical client base.
Client friendly solution
Thirdly, and as earlier predicted, the unique Swiss and multi-market centre platform called "CATCH" (operated independently by MilleniumAssociates AG and covering all European wealth centres as well as relevant onshore markets) is continuously expanding its service to the market by being the only client friendly mechanism whereby de-emphasised clients from markets to be exited can be offered a choice of willing receiving banks and wealth managers rather than rejecting them without further assistance.
This client friendly approach which still requires traditional KYC and AML reviews at the client level has been proven to allow exiting banks to find receiving banks and wealth managers for their resegmented markets / clients in an orderly and profitable manner. Volumes are expected to rise dramatically as the implementation of resegmentation initiatives is still at an early stage with the majority of institutions and as they are appreciate the ease of operation in a confidential manner suiting the needs of the exiting party, the receiving party and the end clients alike.
Independent asset managers are now also joining the proprietary "CATCH" platform which is garnering industry attention and winning innovation awards, allowing them not only to conduct their resegmentation initiatives but at the same time also to find like-minded growth partners via an expanded participation model tailored specifically to their needs.
The era of resegmentation will dominate private banks and wealth managers in the period and years ahead with recurring market segment reviews and client exits diminishing the role of M&A and increasing the practice of client friendly bilateral and multilateral resegmentation.
