American investors remain hopeful about prospects for domestic stocks and the US dollar in the fourth quarter of 2013, despite their decidedly pessimistic view of the global equities markets and the struggling US economy, according to the latest global retail investor survey conducted by TradeStation, a Monex Group company.
In the online survey conducted in September 2013, U.S. investors were slightly less upbeat about the outlook for domestic stocks and the U.S. dollar than three months ago. Fifty-eight percent of TradeStation customers expected U.S. stocks to outperform stocks in Europe/U.K., Asia (excluding Japan) and
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Japan, down 5 points from June 2013 but still well above the 43% figure posted as recently as December 2012. Only 17% of U.S. investors expect Asian stocks (excluding Japan) to perform best over the fourth quarter of 2013, down 2 points from June and 6 points from the March 2013 survey result.
TradeStation customers were also somewhat less bullish about the U.S. dollar, with less than half (46%) expecting the dollar to outperform the other major currencies in the next three months, down from 53% in June 2013 but still well above the 35% figure posted in December 2012.
If U.S. investors cling to hope for domestic stocks and the dollar, it may be because there’s nowhere else to go. U.S. investors remain wary of the global equities markets, with 35% predicting they will decline in the fourth quarter of 2013, versus 30% predicting that global stocks will rise and 35% predicting they will remain flat. Investors likewise remain leery of the U.S. economy and its prospects for the remainder of 2013, with more than half (55%) of respondents predicting either no change or deteriorating conditions for the remainder of the year. Forty-two percent of respondents predicted slightly improving economic conditions, while just 2% foresee rapid improvement.
"This quarter’s results represent a continuation of recent trends, with investors struggling to find opportunities in what remain very challenging market conditions both here and abroad," said Salomon Sredni, CEO of TradeStation Group, Inc. and COO of Monex Group, Inc. "In this environment, investors need all the help they can get, and we remain focused on providing TradeStation clients with tools and resources that are second to none."
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By GlobalDataRespondents’ concerns about the markets were reflected in somewhat dampened expectations for their own trading volume over the next 12 months. Forty-four percent of respondents expected their trading volume to increase (down 6 points from June and 10 points from March).
Monex has been conducting its monthly retail investor survey with its Japanese clients since October 2009. The "Monex Global Retail Investor Survey," covering retail clients in Japan, Hong Kong and the U.S., was launched in June 2011 and is conducted on a quarterly basis. Please refer to the full report for complete results.
While concerns about China’s slowing economy have grown throughout the course of this year, TradeStation customers continue to see China playing an outsized role on the global economic stage. Fully 95% of respondents expect China to exert either great or some influence on the world economy in the near-term future.
Thirty-seven percent of respondents cited China as the economic area outside their own that would experience the strongest GDP growth over the next 12 months. While still higher than all other regions, that figure is down significantly – 22 points – from December 2012.
The Monex Global Retail Investor Survey measures customer sentiment based upon answers to specific questions received from a random sampling of customers of Monex, Inc., TradeStation Securities, Inc., IBFX, Inc., and Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Ltd. Details of the methodology used to conduct the survey are available upon request. Accuracy and completeness of the data derived from the survey is not guaranteed.
